Question

• How should the United States adjust existing AI semiconductor export controls (or design new ones) to protect U.S. national security over the long term?

Background and Context

AI semiconductors are the specialized chips that enable the training and deployment (inference) of advanced AI systems, such as large language models (LLMs). Control over these chips, and over the tools used to design and manufacture them, has become a central national security issue.

The AI semiconductor supply chain is highly concentrated. Different firms specialize in different stages:

• Chip design and design software are dominated by U.S.-based companies (e.g., NVIDIA for AI chip design; U.S. firms for electronic design automation software).
• Advanced chip manufacturing is concentrated in Taiwan, where TSMC produces the most advanced AI chips.
• Semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME)—the highly specialized tools required to fabricate advanced chips—is produced by a small number of firms, including companies based in the Netherlands, the United States, and Japan.

Because U.S. firms play an essential role in multiple stages of this supply chain, the United States can impose export controls that reach beyond its borders. In particular, U.S. policy can restrict:

• Foreign-made chips that rely on U.S. design software or technology, and
• Semiconductor manufacturing equipment that contains U.S. components or technology.

These controls are intended to limit Chinese government and industry access to advanced AI chips and to the equipment needed to manufacture them domestically, thereby constraining the development of China’s advanced AI ecosystem.

Your Task

Develop a policy proposal that either:

• Modifies existing U.S. export controls on AI semiconductors, or
• Introduces a new export control approach.

Your proposal should explain how and why your recommended policy would improve U.S. national security outcomes over time. In your analysis, consider tradeoffs across different export control strategies. Relevant considerations may include:

• The strategic importance of maintaining a U.S. or allied lead in advanced AI capabilities